![]() I wonder if they might take premium processing for NIW back to mitigate somewhat? Obviously, allowing premium processing for NIW seemed to have messed up things beyond their expectation, as they have been seeing very high numbers of NIW applications and when they before were within the usual 6-12 months processing, stretching demand, are now ready to file i485 within a mere month. At least that was the initial idea of country caps to begin with, wasn't it? Wouldn't you think before it completely spirals out of control, something would have to be done about it? Right now, ROW demand is heavily skewed by just a few countries they can't punish all the other countries for that. Those with priority dates of October 2022 and beyond can also pull from these numbers in FY 2024. (even though technically they have priority over FY22 filers, this helps with the math). Visas available - 1-485s needing visas = 81166 - 72750 = 8366Ĩ366 "spare" visas for those who applied in FY21 or earlier and don't have green cards yet. 86 (allocated 14% to India and China) = 34,434. 86 = 46732 (allocated max 7% each to India and China, or 14% of total)įY24 EB2 visas = 140000 *. India 45412 + 1185 = 46597 apps received.ġ0958 I-140s filed under Q1 FY23 PERM, mostly India and China. This includes all I-140s received in FY2022 + PERM 1-140s in Q1 FY23 (they will have earlier priority dates). This is NOT an analysis of the most likely scenario):Ĩ4,472 1-140s received throughout FY22 for all countries. to maybe help with planning if the worst happens. Very conservative math (this is intended to be an estimate of the worst case scenario, i.e. So FY23 I-140 applicants should be able to file in Oct. The "good" news is that every ROW with a priority date of Sor earlier should have a visa available before the end of FY 2024. Similarly for Brazil, unless Brazil's EB+FB exceeds 7%*(197k+226k) = 29.61k (fiscal year 2023 limit ), it won't be separated out. For example, South Korea's EB exceeds 7% for many years already, but their FB cases are low, their EB+FB never exceeds 7%. Basically, under the immigration law, only if the EB+FB of a country exceeds 7%, will that country be separated out. ![]() In the document, the DOS says the prior bulletins with these countries in separate columns were "misapplication of the law". See DOS's explanation here: Recently the visa control division under DOS has a new chief (the previous one was Charlie Oppenheim), I think the new chief is changing things, and has a different style of making the visa bulletins from Charlie. Which when combined screw up ROW.īasically EB2 ROW demand is huge because USCIS lowered the standard for it and because everyone is trying for it now that H1B lottery is so impossible. All of them have like 1-2k applications each. Like Colombia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh etc. The reason the ROW backlog is so bad is because many countries have good number of applications while also being under their cap. ![]() It's a lot compared to everyone else, but it's not a game changer on its own. But the numbers don't indicate that, Brazil only has 6k EB2 i-140s in FY22 + Q1FY23 combined. They would need to have at least ~15k applications in the queue in order for them to be much more over their cap and removing them to make a huge difference for everyone else. Brazil is allowed ~4k GCs this cycle and ~3k next cycle. Separating Brazil won't be enough to make ROW current. Hell it might not even jump forward to 1st Jan 2023.ĭemand is skewed heavily by 3 countries - Brazil, South Korea, and Iran - removing them from ROW does not change the headlines here all that much but it may move forward the dates a bit more.Īll data is publicly available on the USCIS website here ( ), here ( ), and here ( ). This means that EB2 will not jump forward to current status. In October 2023, when the new FY starts, we will have roughly 36,000 GCs set aside for ROW countries in EB2. If we assume 90% approval rate for these applications and an average of 1.5 dependents per applicant, we get roughly 35,000 potential I-485 applications from these i140s. There were roughly 25,000 EB2 I-140 applications from Rest of the World (ROW) countries between ApDecember 31 2022. Say we (optimistically) assume that by September 2023, the end of the current FY, the dates for EB2 move forward at least to 1st April 2022 from the current date of 15th Feb 2022 in the May bulletin. I crunched the numbers released by USCIS for I-140 applications.
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